Hey guys! I just realized it’s been a while since we talked discretionary trades. Before the year ends, let me give you a recap of the trades that I took on the major forex pairs.
| Date | Trade Idea | P/L in Pips | P/L in % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9 | Will GBP/USD Keep its Uptrend Alive? | +95 | +0.23% |
| Feb 21 | USD/JPY is Approaching a Retracement Level! | +175 | +0.50% |
| Mar 16 | GBP/USD’s Short-Term Uptrend Still Intact! | +50 | +0.25% |
| Jun 6 | Long-Term Short on USD/CHF | -148 | -0.50% |
| Jul 27 | Bought USD/JPY Ahead of the U.S. GDP Report! | 0 | 0.00% |
| Sept 28 | GBP/USD: How I Lost 100 Pips in One Day | -100 | -0.50% |
| Oct 16 | USD/JPY’s Uptrend Trade | +150 | +0.50% |
No. of Trades Taken:7
No. of Wins: 4
No. of Losses: 2
No. of Break Even Trades: 1
Win %: 57.14%
Average Winning Trade: +0.37%
Average Losing Trade: -0.50%
Total P/L: 0.48%
Looking at the numbers above, two things really stood out for me. First is that I had more wins earlier this year when I actually took more trades. Second, the two losses that I had were the maximum losses that I allotted when I took the trade. That means I didn’t cut my losses at all!
A closer look doesn’t paint a prettier picture. For one thing, my win rate is only a bit better than flipping a coin. My high average losses per trade also means that I have a low expectancy rate this year. Boo.
Oh, and did you notice that I only took 7 trades out of all the trade ideas I had this year? SEVEN! That’s less than the surviving Avengers in Infinity War!Between the Brexit negotiations, Italian debt drama, U.S.-China trade war, Fed’s policy tightening, and all things Trump-related that happened this year, taking seven trades is just not enough.
Anyway, I reviewed all my trades (yes, even the Q1 2018 trades that we already talked about!) and narrowed down the lessons I’ve learned to two:
Gotta risk it to get t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶b̶r̶e̶a̶d̶ the biscuit!
Aside from the seven that I risked actual money on, I also had THIRTEEN trade ideas that I chose not to take. Thing is, a lot of them could have yielded me tons of pips.
USD/JPY’s retracement trade, for example, would’ve gotten me in on an uptrend that lasted for the second half of the year. USD/CHF’s 1.0050 psychological level also held as resistance and would’ve given me the opportunity to trade the move down to the .9600 support.
Risk management is not trade management.
As you can see above, I closed a lot of trades at their initial stop loss or profit levels. To improve my trading skills, I’m going to have to learn how to manage my positions more actively and try to get the best possible deal out of my setups.
With these said, I’m listing my priorities for the year ahead:
1. Take. More. Trades.
Practice makes progress! The best way to improve is to do more of what works and less of what doesn’t. Taking more trades would give me the opportunity to make those lists.
2. Practice making trade adjustments.
There’s a difference between adapting to new catalysts and trading environments and straying from your trading plan.
As long as you’re not risking more than you initially planned for and you’re maximizing trade opportunities, making trade adjustments shouldn’t be a problem.
3. Consider trading other pairs
Being around the markets more often means I might see opportunities outside the major dollar pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CHF). Which pairs do you think bear watching in the year ahead?
That’s it for my trade review and plans, friends! Now I’m off to crunch some numbers so I can show you how the HLHB Trend-Catcher System did in Q4 2018.
In the meantime, wanna share your story? How was your trading this year?
This content is strictly for informational purposes only and does not constitute as investment advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Please read our Risk Disclosure to make sure you understand the risks involved.