Looks like the bulls got better game than the bears this time!
A couple of weeks ago I bet on trade war rhetoric and a tepid reaction to a strong NFP report when I sold USD/CHF.
Unfortunately, the “downtrend” didn’t have momentum. For one thing, the Fed not only RAISED its interest rates, but it also upgraded its growth forecasts and hinted of hawkish sentiments in the near future.
Meanwhile, USD/CHF’s bearish move on the weekly chart was limited by the .9850 psychological handle and the 100 SMA.
USD/CHF ended up making new lows for a bit before risk aversion and dollar-buying eventually pushed USD/CHF to my stops at 1.0050. Boo!
Here’s the damage:
Total: -148 pips / -0.50% loss on 0.50% risk
I guess I should’ve just cut my losses or taken a few pips off the table when .9850 proved to be too strong for the bears.
I could have also been quicker with changing my biases when the trade war story wasn’t doing as much damage on the Greenback as I thought it would be.
I hope I can make it up with my USD/JPY trade!
See also:
My Q1 2018 Forex Trade Review and Reflections
Latest version of the HLHB Trend-Catcher System
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