JPY Weekly Forecast – Lower-Tier Data on Tap

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The yen started on a strong note but ended up in Chopsville late last week.

Will we see a one-directional movement in the next few days?

Check out the potential movers for the safe haven this week:

Domestic data dump

Tokyo’s core CPI (Sept 28, 11:30 pm GMT) could improve from -0.3% to -0.2% while the annualized reading is seen remaining at 0.3%
Leading indicators index (Sept 28, 1:00 pm GMT) expected to jump from 83.8 to 86.9
Preliminary industrial production (Sept 29, 11:50 pm GMT) to weaken from 8.7% to 1.5% in August
Retail sales (Sept 29, 11:50 pm GMT) expected to improve from -3.3% to 0.2%, while annualized growth could also recover from -2.8% to -2.0%
Housing starts (Sept 30, 5:00 am GMT) seen at -10.2% vs. 11.4% drop in July
Tankan’s manufacturing PMI (Sept 30, 11:50 pm GMT) to bounce from -34.0 to -26.0 in Q3 2020
Tankan’s services PMI could also improve from -17.0 to -10.0
Unemployment rate (Oct 1, 11:30 pm GMT) to inch higher from 2.9% to 3.2% in August?
Consumer confidence (Oct 2, 5:00 am GMT) might clock in at 32.0 after 29.3 reading in August

USD/JPY could receive a lot of attention during the U.S. Presidential debates and the U.S. NFP releases and take most of the yen crosses along for the ride
COVID-19 concerns around the world (rising cases, vaccine updates, stimulus announcements, lockdown prospects) will continue to affect risk-taking and the demand for the safe-haven yen
Brexit negotiations could influence EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and CHF/JPY’s intraweek trends

Keltner Channels hint at the yen’s “overbought” conditions against the Aussie and franc on the daily time frame

EMAs show the yen’s short and long-term bullish trends against the Kiwi and Loonie
The yen remains under the 200 EMA against the Aussie, franc, and euro
JPY is seeing short-term bearish pressure against GBP and USD

JPY saw the most volatility against AUD, GBP, NZD, and CAD in the last seven days