This Friday at 12:30 pm GMT, Canada will print its labor market numbers for the month of February.
With no other major catalysts on tap that day, this release just might spark strong intraday moves for the Loonie.
Planning on trading the event? Here are the points you need to know first:
What happened last time?
- Employment change: -212.8K vs. projected -43.5K drop in Jan
- Unemployment rate jumped from 8.6% to 9.4% vs. 8.9% consensus
- Labor force participation rate dropped from 65% to 64.7%
Canada printed downbeat employment data for January, as COVID-19 restrictions weighed heavily on the labor situation.
The economy lost 212.8K jobs during the month, nearly five times as much as the projected 43.5K decline and enough to drive the jobless rate up from 8.6% to 9.4% – its worst reading since August 2020.
Underlying components of the January Canadian jobs report revealed that the losses were all from a drop in part-time work. As it turns out, the retail sectors of Quebec and Ontario chalked up massive hiring declines due to closures of non-essential businesses.
What are traders expecting this time?
- Net addition of 98.5K jobs projected for February
- Jobless rate to improve from 9.4% to 9.2%
Analysts see a potential rebound in hiring for February, as some provinces loosened up restrictions and reopened some businesses.
Leading indicators like the Ivey PMI point to positive data, with the reading improving from 48.4 to 60.0 to reflect a comeback to industry expansion. The jobs component of the survey rose from 41.5 to 54.0 to signal a strong rebound in hiring for the month.
Still, deciding which currency to trade against the Loonie?
Check out this MarketMilk™ performance ranking CAD pairs to help you gauge which ones might be most bullish or bearish:
Not feeling confident about trading the event at all? That’s okay, you can always stay in the sidelines and observe the Loonie’s reaction to the release.