Aaaand the numbers are in! Now that a full trading quarter has gone, let’s take a look at the backtesting results of the HLHB Trend-Catcher System since I tweaked its parameters earlier this year.
Read all about my HLHB Trend Catcher System if this is your first time hearing about it!
As I’ve mentioned before, I’ve decided to stick to my second tweak in my forward tests for the next couple of weeks. Basically, I’m adding the ADX indicator as a filter on top of the RSI and applying all of them on the 4-hour time frame instead of last year’s 1-hour charts.
Here’s what came up after crunching the numbers in Q1 2017:
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
Take note that we are risking 0.5% per position. It would probably be better if the risk is bumped up to 1.0% per position, but I’m keeping it at 0.5% for now for easier comparison against my other backtest results.
As you can see on the chart above, the new set of HLHB System rules was profitable on ALL three dollar pairs during the quarter. Not too shabby considering that these pairs got stuck in ranges at one point or another.
Still, I can’t help but feel underwhelmed with the results especially since it had been an interesting trading quarter for the dollar.
A win is a win, of course, but earning less than 1% per pair is just more work than its worth. Even if I double the risk per position, the profits would only register at +0.53% for EUR/USD, +1.10% for GBP/USD, and +1.51% for USD/JPY. After three months. Meh.
Another thing I’ve noticed is that the current rules still invalidated one or two signals that would’ve yielded HUNDREDS of pips. It was painful to watch! Maybe setting my ADX filter above 25 is too high? The system is also still prone to fakeouts though not as much as before.
For now, I have to remember that a trading quarter doesn’t make a year. I’ll stick to the current set of rules while I seriously consider going back to trading the 1-hour time frames again. I mean, have you seen 2016’s results? Or maybe just adjust my ADX filter. Or find another way to filter out the fakeouts.
What do you think?
Don’t hesitate to let me know if you have any comments or questions on the system and on the signals above!
P.S.: Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade and to adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t follow what I do. Better yet, read the Risk Disclosure!
This content is strictly for informational purposes only and does not constitute as investment advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Please read our Risk Disclosure to make sure you understand the risks involved.