AUD Weekly Forecast – Eyes on China’s PMIs

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Talks of an RBA rate cut and worsening pandemic prospects dragged the Aussie lower across the board.

Let’s see if this week’s catalysts can erase some of the comdoll’s losses!

Here are the potential market movers you need to pay attention to:

Lower-economic reports

Building approvals (Sept 30, 1:30 am GMT) to weaken from 12.0% to -1.5% in August
AIG manufacturing index (Sept 30, 10:30 pm GMT) seen improving from 49.3 to 49.7
Retail sales (Oct 2, 1:30 am GMT) to show 4.2% decline (from 3.2% growth) in August

Official manufacturing PMI (Sept 30, 1:00 am GMT) to tick higher from 51.0 to 51.4
Services PMI could dip from 55.2 to 54.9 in September
Caixin manufacturing PMI (Sept 30, 10:30 pm GMT) expected to inch up from 53.1 to 53.4

With no major data on tap, Aussie traders will likely focus on overall market sentiment
The Trump-Biden debate on Tuesday will likely cause fluctuations for USD and its major counterparts
The U.S. NFP report will also influence the dollar and the major currencies
COVID-19 updates (number of cases, vaccine progress, stimulus talks, lockdown prospects) around the world will be linked to global economic recovery and affect high-yielding bets like the Aussie

The Aussie has lost value to almost all of its major counterparts in the last 30 days
AUD/USD and AUD/JPY dropped by more than 4% while AUD/CAD and AUD/EUR saw more than 2% losses in the last month

Keltner Channels relfect AUD/JPY’s “oversold” conditions on the daily time frame
AUD/USD may also reach “oversold” status soon

The Aussie was most volatile against the safe havens and the pound in the last seven days